A blogger seems to believe that Kim Jong-il might be around for a long time, citing the example of Kirk Douglas as someone who can remain alive and sort-of-well long after having a stroke. I would disagree. Kirk Douglas has always taken very good care of himself

.Hey, now, that’s not quite what I meant.

I was commenting on the bit from PBS that KJI’s weakness at the Supreme People’s Assembly indicated he was in bad shape, to suggest his end is imminent.

Strokes are, unfortunately, a genetic risk in my brood, so I know some stuff first hand. People who haven’t gone through this with someone close mistake the post-stroke physical condition as symptoms of some underlying disease, much like cancer or heart disease.

The brain is attacked, part of it may even die, which severs connections between brain and body. But a person’s physical recovery may be masked by apparent physical difficulties. For example, a person may survive the stroke but they may endure loss of usage of speaking or some motor function, even though they’re basically out of the woods. To someone not in the know, the limp, the frailty, the loss of movement on one side, the slurred speech, etc., may seem like an on-going underlying problem that points to demise.

But that’s not the case. When you’re out of the woods with the stroke, you’re out of the woods with that stroke. What you’re in danger of is the next stroke. This is what I wrote:

If you have survived a stroke (and KJI apparently has), then your risk of stroke is from the next one, not the previous one. The Dear Leader is no doubt on a whole bunch of medicines designed to keep the blood pumped by his cold, black heart as close to the perfect viscosity as possible to keep him from having another one. KJI, in fact, may be around for a long, long time.

KJI’s apparent bad habits (heavy drinking, etc.) may have impaired his odds of surviving last year’s stroke, but in the end, he survived. KJI’s apparent bad habits may also make another stroke more likely, but almost certainly he is being carefully monitored, in a way other fat boozers are not.

I’m not saying he will live as long as Kirk Douglas (who is still alive, of course), only that it’s foolish to assume his weak condition is a sign of impending death. He is out of the woods from his last stroke. It’s the next stroke, if/when it happens, that may signal his demise.